2022 Rhode Island General Assembly general election ratings 3.0
We’re down to the last week of the 2022 election season, with millions of early and mail votes already cast in Rhode Island and around the country. Unsurprisingly, in Rhode Island the bulk of the media and public attention has gravitated toward the statewide races and the rare competitive congressional race. I have tried to carve out a space to highlight the races for the General Assembly with posts on the redistricting process and general election ratings, and have received some nice comments from those who appreciate this angle (I would be remiss not to give a hat tip to Patrick Anderson of the Providence Journal, who had a nice write-up this morning that covered of a few of the GA races that I discuss in this post). I hope that if you are an RI voter, these posts have helped you be more informed about what’s going on at the state legislative level as you step into the ballot box this year. So let’s get to it.
If you have not read versions 1.0 and 2.0 of my general election ratings, I would encourage you to at least skim them, as I discuss the factors I use to rate races in those posts.
The vast majority of the rating changes I’m making here are related to campaign finance data (primarily money spent, but also money raised and cash on hand). While campaign finance is an imperfect measure, it highlights the benefits of incumbency and separates legitimate challengers from unserious ones. A wrinkle to this is that the most recent campaign finance reports cover different time periods depending on the candidate. Candidates that faced no primary have a report covering July 1 through the end of October, while those that did have a primary have a report covering the period immediately following the primary in early September through October. You could treat these cases differently — ether by considering the post-primary spending for those candidates to be “general election spending” and comparing directly to the July-October spending of the non-primary candidates, but that feels too reductive. You could add pre- and post-primary spending together across separate reports, but I simply don’t have enough time. The best I can do here is try to take into account and provide the proper context about the data that we have.
Lastly, I have eliminated all toss-ups and have every race in either the Democratic or Republican column, something that not all election ratings do. I figure I might as well plant a flag and prepare to be either right or wrong.
Senate final prediction: 34 Dem (+1 net)/4 Rep (-1 net)
-SD 17 (Trump +5/Biden +4): Toss up to Lean R
I am giving the edge to Republican Senator Tom Paolino in this Lincoln-based seat. This is a purple district with a credible independent candidate, former Republican Rep. John Lyle. It is extra difficult to predict where Lyle will pull votes from — while he was a Republican officeholder, he has since denounced the party and (rightly) noted that many of his personal policy positions no longer fit within the modern GOP. Paolino has the advantage of incumbency and a financial edge as well. Democrat Cameron Deutsch has spent just $888 since 7/1 but should carry enough Dem votes to split the opposition vote with Lyle.
-SD 22 (Trump +5/Biden +2): Toss up to Lean D
In Smithfield, I had highlighted that Republican Paul Santucci had put up a good showing in 2020 against incumbent Stephen Archambault. With Archambault off the ballot, I gave Santucci a good shot at flipping the seat, but he has been getting absolutely swamped financially. In the past month Democratic nominee David Tikoian has matched Santucci’s level of spending since July, and Tikoian has $43,000 on hand compared to Santucci’s $1,200. I still have my eye on this race, but I think it will be clear that Democrats benefitted from getting their more moderate and better-financed candidate through the primary.
-SD 24 (Clinton +9/Biden +10): Likely D to Safe D
Incumbent Woonsocket senator Melissa Murray is taking this race seriously, spending $5,000 since July 1, while her opponent, Republican Craig Locoture has spent just short of $900. Not nearly good enough.
-SD 29 (Trump +1/Biden +9): Toss up to Lean D
I wrote extensively on this Warwick race in in my second ratings post, when I moved it to a toss up. I am moving this back to the Dem column (reluctantly so), because it is clear that Democratic nominee Jennifer Rourke has the resources of the left including the RI Political Co-op, which Rourke co-founded, at her back. Since winning a tightly-contested primary, Rourke has racked up $14,600 in spending, an eye-popping sum for one month in a state senate race. Republican Anthony Deluca has spent $4,350 since winning his primary, which is itself an impressive sum. I see Rourke narrowly taking this seat and giving the left its signature success of 2022.
Elsewhere, I took a close look at SD 38 (Clinton +5/Biden +15), the South County seat being vacated by longtime GOP leader Dennis Algiere. I still favor Democrat Victoria Gu to flip this seat, although Westerly town councilman Caswell Cooke is mounting a serious Independent bid, spending over $24,300 since July. Cooke is very similar to Lyle in SD 17 — a Republican turned independent who endorsed Dan McKee — so it’s difficult to predict where he pulls votes from. Gu is extremely well financed as well ($13,000 spent since 9/6 and $35,700 on hand), while Republican Westin Place is dragging well behind financially ($3,800 spent since 7/1, $2,100 on hand. It stays Lean D, and Cooke is obviously the most viable opponent to Gu in the race.
House final prediction: 65 Dem., 10 Rep. (0 net change)
-HD19 (Clinton +16/Biden +22): Likely D to Safe D
In Cranston, Republican Jason Klas has yet to file a single campaign finance report in his race against incumbent Rep. Brandon Potter.
HD26 (Trump +6/Biden +4): Likely R to Lean R
Curiously, Republican Rep. Patricia Morgan of West Warwick has yet to register any campaign spending despite having over $14,000 on hand. Democrat Samara Yelle doesn’t appear to be all that strong, spending $2,800 since 7/1. Morgan, with her controversies, probably survives, but this is not a deep red district that is going to pull the lever for an incumbent Republican without some effort.
HD30 (Clinton +9/Biden +20): Likely D to Lean D
This East Greenwich/West Greenwich seat is one highlighted in the ProJo article linked above. Republican Amanda Blau has built a notable financial advantage — in funds raised, spent, and cash on hand — over incumbent Rep. Justine Caldwell since 7/1. This area of the state turned blue only very recently, and I suspect that Allan Fung will actually do quite well in this district. Caldwell is also more vulnerable than the partisanship of the district would suggest — against another credible Republican opponent in 2020, Caldwell received 52 percent of the vote, running nearly seven points behind Joe Biden. Needless to say, if Caldwell runs 7 points behind Seth Magaziner, this seat will flip.
HD42 (Trump +12/Trump +7): Toss up to Lean D
In my last post, I said I was interested in learning more about the seriousness of Republican candidate Harold Borders, who is trying to unseat Rep. Edward Cardillo (who survived a bizarre primary) in Johnston. Turns out, it isn’t that serious. While Borders is still on the ballot, he has yet to file a campaign finance report. Missed opportunity for a Republican flip in another area where Fung should run strong.
HD47 (Trump +21/Trump +17): Likely R to Safe R
This Burrillville-based district was the reddest RI house district in 2020, and Democrat Paul Roselli, who is challenging Republican Rep. David Place, has spent just $6 since 7/1. Place nevertheless appears to be taking the race seriously, spending $6,700 over the same period.
HD48 (Trump +14/Trump +4): Likely R to Lean R
Next door in North Smithfield, Republican Rep. Brian Newberry faces a more credible challenge from Paul Jones in a less red district. Jones is a progressive who is not a very good fit for the district, but he has spent $6,000 since 7/1, to Newberry’s $7,000. Newberry still possesses a large advantage in terms of cash on hand and should prevail unscathed in his first contested general election since 2014.
HD52 (Clinton +3/Biden +12): Lean D to Likely D
Republican nominee Chris Hogan, who received 42.7% of the vote in 2020 against incumbent Rep. Alex Marszalkowski, does not appear to be mounting a serious challenge this time around. Hogan has raised $25 and spent just $77 since 7/1, despite having over $5,000 in cash on hand.
HD53 (Trump +7/Trump +2): Toss up to Lean R
I haven’t gone out on a limb much yet, so I will here. Republican Brian Rea flips this Glocester/Smithfield seat after coming within less than 100 votes of doing so in 2020. Incumbent Bernie Hawkins is clearly taking his opponent seriously — he has spent $12,650 since 7/1. Rea has spent far less thus far but raised nearly $8,000 since 7/1, an impressive sum that surpassed Hawkins and many other incumbent Democratic lawmakers. Rea could put those funds to use down the final stretch and get over the hump this time.
HD57 (Clinton +23/Biden +20): Likely D to Safe D
Another non-factor Republican candidate here in Dennis Huard, who has yet to spend any money. Democratic candidate Brandon Voas should carry this after defeating incumbent Rep. Jim McLaughlin in the primary.
A few other races to watch where I am not changing the rating at this time:
-The other flip I am predicting is in HD36 (Clinton +13/Biden +22), left open by former GOP leader Blake Filippi. Democrat Tina Spears has a massive financial advantage on all fronts over Republican John Pacheco. If Republicans can’t flip any seats in either chamber, they are likely to lose at least 1 on net in each — those formerly held by both minority leaders. Ouch.
-The closest House race of the night, if not in HD53, could be in Warwick’s HD 21 (Clinton +1/Biden +12) between incumbent Democrat Camille Vella-Wilkinson and Republican Marie Hopkins. This one is getting hugely expensive, as Vella-Wilkinson has spent $25,000 since winning her primary in September, while Hopkins raised over $11,000 and spent over $7,700 since July. This is one of several races that would have been a prime pickup opportunity for the GOP if a progressive candidate had prevailed in a primary.
-Finally, incumbent Rep. Justin Price is being outspent by both Independent Sean Comella and Democrat Megan Cotter in HD 38 (Trump +7/Biden +1). Cotter narrowly lost to Price in 2020 by just over 300 votes. At a glance, Comella appears to be a more conservative-leaning Independent who could hurt Price, but Cotter is another progressive who is not a great fit for their district. I could see the winner here in the low 40% range.
