Rhode Island 2020 presidential election in review: Providence County
To see the first post in this series, which explains the background on the overall project, see here.
After already discussing the two most heavily Hispanic cities in the state — Providence and Central Falls — to examine the rightward trend that made those cities an outlier in Rhode Island, in this post I will be covering the remainder of Providence County. Yes counties are useless in Rhode Island, but they serve as a good way to break up this series into manageable chunks.
Without PVD and Central Falls, Providence County has roughly 424,000 in population, which still would make it the largest county in the state. Among the towns we will be looking at here, there were roughly 180,000 votes cast in the 2016 presidential election and 201,000 cast in 2020. To round out the “urban core” as it is commonly known, let’s start with the cities of Pawtucket and Woonsocket. Both swung to Biden very narrowly, much less than the overall statewide swing.
Woonsocket in notable in particular because it bled Democratic support in both 2012 and 2016, when Hillary Clinton received exactly 50% of the vote there. Biden stopped some of the bleeding in 2020, but looking at the precinct level returns, it appears there could be more room for Dems to fall there. The 3 precincts that swung to Trump in 2020 were the 3 most Democratic precincts in 2016, suggesting the possibility of future losses. These precincts — 3902, 3903 and 3904 — are on the West side of the city but do not extend into the wealthiest neighborhood on the Massachusetts border. 3902 and 3903 are majority white and over 20% Hispanic. 3904 could very well be one of the most diverse precincts in the state — 36% white, 36.5 % Hispanic, 19% Black and 12.7% Asian. Woonsocket is a densely-populated city and typically has one of the lowest rates of voter turnout in the state (61.6%), so it is possible that a statewide campaign dedicated to turning out unreliable voters would target Woonsocket.
Looking at Pawtucket is useful in trying to examine trends among Black voters, as the Fairlawn/Woodlawn area of the city has 4 of the top 10 most heavily Black precincts in the state.
Pawtucket 2601
2016–2020 Swing: D+10
39.8% Black
12.1% Hispanic
Pawtucket 2602
2016–2020 Swing: R+12
37.3% Black
22.9% Hispanic
Pawtucket 2606
2016–2020 Swing: R+16
43% Black
41% Hispanic
Pawtucket 2631
2016–2020 Swing: R+4
46.2% Black
26.3% Hispanic
Looking at how these areas break down, we see that they are also anywhere from 12.1% to 41% Hispanic as well, and that swings toward Trump appear to again be correlated with the concentration of Hispanic voters, as expected from the analysis in the post on PVD and Central Falls. It is important to note that these areas are roughly 40% Black, while the most heavily Hispanic areas are precincts in Providence and Central Falls that are upwards of 80% Hispanic. The more reliable support for Biden among Black voters (as backed up by nationwide analyses) when compared with Hispanic voters kept the rightward swings in these areas more muted as compared to Providence and Central Falls, and helped Biden to narrowly improve on Clinton’s 2016 showing in Pawtucket, albeit less than the overall swing statewide.
Next, to turn to the belt of majority white, ethnically Italian voters stretching from Cranston though Johnston and into North Providence. These areas are demographically and geographically suburban, and the trends here were no different than in similar areas in the country at large — favoring President Biden considerably. In Cranston for example, President Trump won 13 of 33 precincts in 2016 and kept Clinton’s winning margin to 7 points. President Biden doubled that margin by flipping 7 precincts, including 4 of them with double digit swings. Trump’s fall was equally large in North Providence, where Biden won a clean sweep of every precinct, with half of the 16 precincts swinging left by double digits.
The town of Johnston continues to be one of the most uniquely “Trumpy” areas in Rhode Island, so much so that it was featured in “Trump’s Democrats,” a fascinating book by Jon Shields and Stephanie Muravchik. The authors tell a more detailed and compelling story about how a reliably Democratic town like Johnston went for Trump twice by double digits than I could offer in this post, so I highly recommend you check it out. Despite Biden clawing back some margin in 2020, Trump still wins 14 of 15 precincts, including 7 by double digits.
As far as the Blackstone Valley suburbs North of Providence go, the picture isn’t any prettier for Republicans. Trump wins a whole 4 (very small and insignificant) precincts across the towns of Cumberland, East Providence and Lincoln, with double digit leftward swings up and down the board.
Lastly, the remainder of Providence County are the towns of Burrillville, Scituate, Foster, Glocester, Smithfield and North Smithfield, all won by President Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Trump’s 2016 performance in these areas could have been the theoretical ceiling for a Republican candidate, as every precinct in these towns (except Burrillville’s 1st) swung to Biden in 2020. The town of North Smithfield takes the cake as having the largest swing to Biden among any municipality in Providence County, going from R+ 11 to R+ .6. Big picture, the I-295 divide is extremely stark, with Biden pulling close to dead even with Trump in the exurban areas of Smithfield and North Smithfield, but remaining underwater by double digits in the solidly rural areas of Burrillville, Scituate, Foster and Glocester. I don’t expect that this divide will be getting smaller anytime soon.
Some more quick hits on 2020 data from Providence County minus Providence/Central Falls:
- Biggest Swing Right (2016–2020): Pawtucket precinct 2626 (McCoy Stadium) R+30
- Biggest Swing Left (2016–2020): Pawtucket precinct 2616 (Darlington) D+28
- Best Trump precinct: Burrillville precinct 308 (Trump +50)
- Best Biden precinct: Pawtucket precinct 2607 (Oak Hill) Biden +67
- Most total votes: Cranston precinct 730 (2631 votes)
- Most Biden votes: Cranston precinct 723 (1496 votes)
- Most Trump votes: Cranston precinct 730 (1512 votes)
